Caltsar
The Unspeakably
Administrator
Elder Kuvrahk
Karma: 13
Gender: 
Posts: 770
moof!
|
 |
« on: March 04, 2010, 12:58:14 PM » |
|
(To preface this, I wrote this at work, and I have nowhere to post it where people might care. These are my opinions and despite the heavy use as the iPad as an example, this is about slate computers in general, not the iPad.)
I've heard a lot of people claiming the desktop is dead or will be in a few years. This includes experts and high ranking individuals in technology fields, journalists, friends, and co-workers. I may not have the same kind of influence as these people, but there is a common theme I've been hearing in these predictions. Many people are citing Star Trek, 2001: A Space Odyssey, and so many other science fiction shows and movies that display futuristic computing technology. While we've been seeing tech from Star Trek show up in our daily lives for years now (noninvasive surgeries, tricorder-like devices, cell phones, etc), the slate form factor that is starting to gain traction in our computing world does not mean the end of the desktop. The desktop will change, but it will not be gone, and it will look and behave quite similar to our current expectations for quite some time.
I can not write about this topic without addressing the iPad. Regardless of your views on the device and whether you are excited about getting one or absolutely hate the idea of it, many people are going to rush out and buy one on day one. This is Apple, and no other company in recent history has been able to grab the mindshare of the public in the same way. Whether the iPad is a runaway success or not doesn't matter. Reviews of prerelease hardware are generally favorable and it certainly will help to legitimize tablet computing more than previous attempts with UMPCs, convertible notebooks, and even other slate devices. The technology is here now to make the pad from Star Trek. Even if Apple doesn't succeed, Android or some other mobile OS will ultimately find a way to make this happen.
Laptops, Tablets, and Smartphones are going to become even more predominant. The desktop is not going anywhere in the foreseeable future. In fact, if I had to pick a platform that is going to die, it will be the laptop. The laptop will be taking the place of tablets today and will be primarily used by industries that need a mobile desktop OS. Accountants, Lawyers, anyone who does heavy spreadsheet or typing work and anything where their primary function is best suited for a traditional keyboard based input or precise mouse controls (anyone who works on CAD in the field). You will likely see a few premium models of laptops produced. The toughbooks, high end "desktop replacements," and other specialized hardware.
Obviously none of this will happen in the next three years as a certain Google exec is claiming. The tablet itself needs to mature for a while. Right now, that iPad you are getting is much like the early laptop. It has its disadvantages in speed and the underlying OS powering them needs some continued development (remember, even the iPhone OS which is arguably the most mature of the current generation smartphone operating systems is still only a few years old), but at the same time, it offers a level of portability that rivals a smartphone. It's too large to fit in your pocket, but it's not too bulky to carry in your purse, manbag, backpack, cargo pants, or even simply in your hands when you're out and about. Yes, you can get a netbook that does more, but the continued niche market those occupy doesn't help matters.
Now with the awkward segue to everyone's favorite argument against the iPad, I'd like to address the netbook briefly. There is a group of people who swear by the netbooks they buy. This group is VERY small. I have no hard statistics on this group, of the people I know who have bought netbooks (and there are a lot), most almost never use them. They almost universally say that their purchase was a waste of money. A notebook replies on a keyboard and a trackpad these days. Most netbooks below the price of an iPad have a similar screen size. Not only are they thicker, heavier, and underpowered for the operating system they run, but the keyboard and trackpad are the two things I usually hear complaints about. The keyboard is always too small. The trackpad is always too hard to use. This is not because the trackpad is low quality (though it often is), but rather the icons, widgets, and click points on the screen are too small. Turn the resolution down and you can't see enough of your webpage. Turn it up to a bearable amount and you can't read it. Whether this is a problem for you is beside the point, the vast majority of people I've talked to have a problem with this. While my evidence is both circumstantial and only reflects the groups I interact with, I do feel it is a fairly accurate view of the form factor. By the time you get to a netbook with a screen big enough to fit the comfortable laptop keyboard, you are already back into laptop territory with the price and form factor. I'm not predicting the demise of the netbook, but I am predicting future media obscurity of the form factor.
Ultimately, this rant/essay of mine is about the demise of the desktop. If you recall from the first couple paragraphs, I mentioned Star Trek. Specifically I'm referring to The Next Generation and the following series. I'm sure all of you have seen the little pad device used by everybody and since so many people are comparing this with the upcoming iPad, I will do the same, and use Star Trek as an argument as to why the desktop isn't dead. For fun, I'll even throw a scene from Avatar into the mix!
The desktop will always be important, but it will likely be moved to a content creation and home server role. In Star Trek, Avatar, and any other science fiction film or TV show the tablet is a device for consumption of text, media, and information. There is a notable exception with Star Trek where individuals use tablets to write, but this is not something we will see in the near future. They keyboard is here to stay. In Avatar, the tablet was used to take information from the primary computer, a desktop of sorts, and allowed the user to view that information from another part of the room. In Star Trek, the pads are used mostly for studying, viewing information, and doing light work away from the primary computer. This is a trend that is rarely broken, and when it is, it's usually broken through some sort of future input method that eliminates the need for a precise or fast input method like a keyboard and mouse. The tablet will be one of many computers you will own in the future. You will have your desktop. Many people will use the desktop for shared media storage and for more traditional computing tasks. It will likely take the role of a Home Theater PC for many people. There is the smart phone. The huge success of the iPhone and the customer satisfaction seen with the device itself does show that almost all of the public doesn't care at all about the limitations (and even a "geeky" person like me chose these limitations over a more "capable" device like Windows Mobile that operated on the traditional desktop metaphor). The smartphone is not an office productivity device. It's capable of doing most office tasks, but it's designed to receive information anywhere. It is a device that compliments the traditional computer so most people do not need for it to do everything a traditional computer can do. If you are one of those few who do, there will always be a niche market for you.
Where does the slate fit in? It's a device that is more comfortable to use for consuming information. It will be used on the couch, at coffee shops, in schools... anywhere a laptop can go, but just like reading a book it is much more comfortable to hold that slab in a way where viewing or reading that information is ideal. You can't do that very well with a laptop. At schools, most of the time is spent reading, but what about those times you need to type? The iPad or a similar slate device would be a good student computer. Loading textbooks onto it, interactive educational content, and even taking notes would work well. Someday, in the future, desks could have keyboard docks (bluetooth or something so the specific slate device you own will work with any of them). When you're dealing with touch input and primarily consuming information, you don't need a keyboard all the time. Usually as a student, you a sitting at a desk and writing a paper or taking notes. When you are out holding the device, sitting on a couch, or otherwise mobile, on screen input is adequate for anything you may need to write.
TL;DR - Desktops are for content creation, Tablets are for content consumption. Both will exist together, and both will survive. Your desktop is going nowhere.
|
